Prediction

Prediction

UEFA Euro 2016 qualifiers: predictions for Matchday 1

Dr Nicolas Scelles

Posted: September 5, 2014

Following on from a post earlier in the week, The Scorecard presents predictions for this coming week’s UEFA international games:

Home Away Score Model 1 corrected Model 2
Denmark Armenia 2-1 0.57 0.59
Georgia Ireland 0-1 -1.25 -0.81
Hungary Northern Ireland 2-1 1.15 0.54
Faroe Finland 0 or 1-3 -2.74 -2.01
Greece Romania 2-1 0.92 0.95
Germany Scotland 3-1 or 0 2.10 2.54
Gibraltar Poland 0-4 -4.08 -4.381
Portugal Albania 1 or 2-0 1.37 1.61
Serbia France 1-1 -0.496 -0.37
Russia Liechtenstein 3-0 3.36 3.495
Austria Sweden 1-1 0.49 0.31
Montenegro Moldova 2-1 0.97 1.16
Luxembourg Belarus 1-2 -1.33 -1.29
Spain Macedonia 2-0 2.02 2.19
Ukraine Slovakia 2-0 or 1 2.21 1.37
Estonia Slovenia 1-1 or 2 -0.37 -0.96
San Marino Lithuania 0-3 or 4 -2.98 -3.93
Switzerland England 1 or 2-2 -0.68 -0.20
Kazakhstan Latvia 1-1 or 0 0.46 0.59
Azerbaijan Bulgaria 1-1 -0.29 -0.15
Croatia Malta 3-1 or 0 1.58 2.86
Norway Italy 1-2 -1.19 -0.69
Czech Republic Netherlands 1-1 or 2 -0.496 -1.14
Iceland Turkey 1-1 -0.18 0.26
Andorra Wales 0-2 -1.63 -2.33
Bosnia and Herzegovina Cyprus 3-0 3.23 3.44
Israel Belgium 1-2 -0.72 -1.07

 

1Given that Gibraltar did not play in the past, we arbitrarily chose to allocate San Marino’s coefficient to Gibraltar.

2 Israel-Belgium has been postponed and will be played on March 31, 2015.

 

About Dr Nicolas Scelles

Nicolas Scelles is a Lecturer at the School of Sport, Stirling University, Scotland. He holds a PhD in sports economics from the University of Caen Basse-Normandie, France. He has articles in international journals including Applied Economics, Economics Bulletin, International Journal of Sport Finance and International Journal of Sport Management and Marketing.